Englische Übersetzung des Artikels «Die Entwicklung des deutschen Imperialismus» aus Klassenkampf Ausgabe #2
At the turn of the 20th century, German imperialism was still lagging miles behind its competitors. Then its rise followed at record speed. Neither the world’s most advanced labor movement at the time nor two lost world wars have been able to bring it down in the long term. Today, Germany’s ruling class is facing new challenges. The battle for the greatest profits and power over the whole world is currently being waged by the USA and China. The European imperialists – and with them Germany – face the danger of falling completely behind. The contradictions that make up the imperialist world system are developing ever faster, and the next world war is already looming on the horizon.
The working class in Germany is still largely helpless in the face of these developments. But we will not go like sheep to the slaughter. Instead of becoming “war-ready” for the imperialists, we must understand what is happening around us and become resilient. This article aims to help analyze the conditions under which we live and will struggle today and tomorrow. From a brief historical outline of the history of German imperialism, we move on to more recent developments and turn our attention to possible developments in the coming years. Finally, we will look more closely at the question of what our response as communists and workers must be.
The global imperialist system today
Germany’s development is part of the overall development of imperialism as a world system. In this respect, how we assess imperialism today and what role Germany plays in it is important for our analysis.
We can build on Lenin’s studies from his work “Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism”. The capitalist monopolies described therein, which control production and capital and divide the markets among themselves, still exist. Today, production processes are internationalized and global supply chains prevail. The largest monopolies have become global monopolies that control not only national but also international production processes. They make companies at lower levels of production dependent on them, which may themselves be monopolies in a certain area. Today, the competition between these monopolies also takes place on a global scale.
The world monopolies use the nation states as their power base for international competition. They rely on the ability of the state apparatus to establish and protect the capitalist order, i.e. to hold down the working class and redistribute social wealth from the bottom to the top. In relation to other countries, the state should protect its own territory and expand its own sphere of influence in various ways – economically, militarily, ideologically and politically. Today, the power and assertiveness of a state depends on how many world monopolies are behind it and in what position of power these are. Other factors build on this economic basis, such as the military strength achieved and the possibility of a comprehensive war economy. Another interdependent factor is the ability of the political system to function in the interests of the monopolies and the social stability within a state. If the state has large sums of money at its disposal, it can use these, for example, to contain protest movements with the help of reforms. With fewer political crises and protests, a state can assert its power more effectively against its competitors. Geographical location, natural resources and the size of its territory and population are also factors that can influence its position of power and bring different challenges or advantages.
The USA and, after it, China are the most powerful imperialist countries in the world today. Even if Germany is some way off this scale, it is one of the next most powerful imperialist countries in the world. It has a broad economic base, the third largest nominal gross domestic product in the world1 and is in a position to take part in the struggle for world hegemony with its own strategy in international competition. This means that it is in a position to assert its interests against a large number of states worldwide due to its position of power and is not for example limited only to a specific region. The European Union (EU) plays a special role in German imperialism. As an imperialist alliance, Germany uses the EU to assert its interests in Europe and beyond. One example of the latter is the Mercosur Agreement, a free trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur states of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, which is expected to come into force in 2026 and will primarily improve conditions for German monopolies.
The path of German imperialism
In order to understand the current and future developments of German imperialism, it is necessary to situate them in their historical context. To this end, we would like to provide a brief outline of the historical development and discuss some of the special features of the German circumstances.
The Hungarian communist Eugen Varga (1879-1964) describes this comprehensively in his work “The historical roots of the particularities of German imperialism”. At the beginning of the 20th century, German imperialism initially lagged behind its competitors. In the battle for control of the largest possible share of the world market, England and France had a clear lead. In order to catch up, German capital used two methods in particular: On the one hand, high protective tariffs on industrial goods in order to secure the domestic market, and on the other hand, engaging in price dumping, i.e. selling goods abroad below their production price. The resulting losses were in turn passed on to the workers at home. In order to make the conditions as favorable as possible for German capital, many associations of capitalists were soon formed, which jointly asserted their interests against the state: “High tariffs alone were not enough for the German capitalists; they demanded at least toleration, if not positive support for the formation of monopolies and high domestic prices by the state. The role of the state in economic policy, its interference in favor of monopoly capital, was greater in Germany than in any other capitalist country. The old practice of the Prussian bureaucratic state, which interfered in all the affairs of the citizens, was put at the service of monopoly capital. Thus certain tendencies towards state capitalism developed very early in Germany, even before the First World War.”2 This led to an especially rapid rise in German industry, which took the lead in the metal, chemical and electrical engineering sectors in Europe at the beginning of the 20th century.
However, keeping the price of industrial goods high at home reached its limits with the further technical development of industry, and Germany was not able to achieve any major successes in the battle for additional sales markets in the form of colonies by 1914. The German capitalists pushed for the forcible expansion of the market, while their imperialist competitors wanted to retain and further expand their position of power. To resolve this contradiction, the imperialists unleashed the First World War, the first imperialist war for the redivision of the world.
However, German imperialism failed in this first attempt to subjugate large parts of Europe, West Asia and Africa. After its defeat in 1918, the capitalist class saved itself from the November Revolution through its alliance with the Social Democrats, who had already committed open betrayal of the working class in 1914 by agreeing to the war credits. Having secured their power through a combination of violent suppression of the November Revolution and a few concessions to the workers, some of the monopolies set about preparing for the next war. The Reichswehr (the German army) was initially rebuilt in secret, armaments factories and production were expanded beyond the number stipulated in the peace treaty and new factories were founded in other countries with German capital. These ventures were financed by the sale of mark notes abroad, which drove up inflation3: “The surplus value acquired in this way was invested primarily in ‘material assets’ and used to rebuild the war-worn production apparatus. In addition, the finance oligarchy robbed the state by taking out huge loans from the Reichsbank, investing them in material assets, but repaying the debt to the Reichsbank in notes that were now completely devalued. Monopoly capital robbed the country while workers, employees and civil servants starved.”4
In addition, large foreign loans helped German capital to regain its competitiveness even after its defeat. Until the early 1930s, important segments of the German monopolies initially relied on a diplomatic foreign policy. However, economic crises and trade wars pushed this approach to its limits. The NSDAP rapidly gained influence and provided a suitable means of expanding a much more aggressive foreign and domestic policy. In 1933, it began its open reign of terror on behalf of the most regressive sections of the capitalists and feudal landowners.
German fascism dropped all cloaks of bourgeois progressiveness and showed the true face of German imperialism. Internally, bourgeois-democratic institutions were abolished, workers lost all their rights in the workplace and society, oppressed social groups and progressive forces were brutally persecuted. The economy was converted to war production and other countries were to become sources of labor, agriculture and raw materials for the German monopolies. From Europe, the aim was to conquer the whole world. The war of conquest was primarily directed towards Eastern Europe in order to create an imperialist power of comparable strength to the USA, which had risen to become a world power after the First World War.
Box: Germany’s geostrategy
The imperialist geostrategy of a country encompasses all planned political, economic, military, etc. measures aimed at achieving world hegemony in the interests of its own monopoly capital. Eurasia, i.e. Europe and Asia as a single continent, plays a central role in achieving this goal. It is the largest contiguous land mass in the world. A power that controls Eurasia would thus have achieved imperialist world hegemony and great advantages over any American, African or Oceanian competition.
Germany is located at the western end of Eurasia, but in the center of Europe. For its neighboring countries, it is an area through which they must pass in order to reach the rest of the continent. In this sense, Germany’s territory is under permanent threat from all sides. As a result, the first priority for German imperialism is to secure its base in Central Europe. It can then strategically expand eastwards (via Poland and Ukraine towards the Caucasus) or south-eastwards (via the Balkans towards Turkey).
This strategy has found its expression in Germany’s actions in two imperialist world wars, for example through the occupation and partial annexation of Poland, Ukraine and the Balkans. But it also applies in times when military annexations are not on the agenda. German imperialism has always fought, at the very least, for a European economic area with apparent independence but de facto dominance by Germany.
Another problem resulting from Germany’s geographical location is the lack of natural resources and the associated issue of energy production in Germany. The largest natural gas deposits are in shale rock, which can only be extracted using newer fracking methods (which have been banned in Germany since 2017). Crude oil and rare earth deposits are also too small for Germany’s own consumption and for the most part cannot be extracted profitably. The known and suspected uranium deposits have also been almost completely depleted and mining has ceased since 1991. In contrast, lignite and hard coal are available in large quantities, and historically a large part of energy production was based on these. Hard coal was mined for decades, but succumbed to international competition at the end of the 19th century due to its occurrence at a depth of 1,000 meters and is now only imported5. The situation has changed somewhat with the development of solar and wind power plants, but they are still not enough6 to make Germany self-sufficient in terms of energy.
From the German Kaiserreich to the Federal Republic of Germany, these strategic questions have accompanied German imperialism throughout its history.
[Box Over!]
The situation after 1945
In 1945, after years of war and destruction, German imperialism was once again militarily defeated. For German capital, this major defeat meant that its resurgence depended above all on the interests of the occupying powers. After the Second World War, the question of competition between the imperialist countries in the West was different than before. The USA led the imperialist camp as the new world power at the time. The existence of the socialist camp on the other side and the role of nuclear weapons were new conditions.
The German state itself was divided by these camps. In the Soviet occupation zone and the later GDR, there were extensive expropriations and the beginnings of a socialist economic policy. Under these conditions, a recovery of German capital was out of the question. In the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), the capitalists managed to integrate themselves into the Western alliances under the leadership of the USA. First and foremost, this included NATO, which was founded in 1949 and which the FRG joined in 1955. Germany benefited from the fact that the USA had an interest in establishing the FRG as an anti-communist outpost and was also able to assert itself against France, which was opposed to such a rapid recovery of German imperialism.
A contradictory process thus began to form imperialist alliances in Europe. This consisted of a permanent struggle for supremacy, primarily between France and Germany. The result was the founding of the European Union in 1992, with Germany asserting itself as the leading power.
After 1945, the FRG likewise rose again economically. Thanks to its export business, Germany was a winner in the emerging globalization of production chains and markets. At the same time, the industrial sectors that were particularly well developed in Germany continued to be important elements of global production. Here, too, the FRG exploited the hegemony of US imperialism. In its slipstream, it was able to do lucrative business with a large part of the world. Since the early 1950s, the FRG exported more goods than it imported. Western Europe was a particularly important market. In turn, the USA initially made trade with Eastern Europe very difficult due to numerous trade restrictions. In 1937, Eastern Europe still accounted for 16 percent of Germany’s exports; by 1960, this figure had fallen to just four percent7. Today the figure is back to around 18 percent8. Nevertheless, by 1960 Germany had risen to become the world’s second largest trading nation and was only pushed to third place by the rise of China in the 2000s.
From the annexation of the GDR to the Ukraine War
German imperialism always had the goal of changing the post-war order in its favor. One of the most important steps in this process was the incorporation of the GDR by the FRG in 1989/1990 – the largest annexation without war in the history of imperialism. It secured additional markets and enabled the West German monopolies to enrich themselves from the population of the GDR and its production. Although not all of the territories lost in the war became part of Germany again (the FRG only gave up claims to territories east of the Oder-Neisse border with the Two Plus Four Treaty in 1990), it was enough to be content with for the time being.
Following the annexation of the GDR and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the balance of power in Europe changed once more. The EU was founded, creating a common market in which capital and goods could be freely exported, and the euro was introduced, massively boosting both within Europe. Other European countries were no longer able to protect themselves from a flood of goods from northern Europe and Germany by, for example, devaluing their currencies.
German imperialism overcame the global economic crisis of 2008/2009 relatively quickly and used it to further expand its leading position in Europe during these years – for example, as the administrator of the rescue funds that were used to force austerity programs in Greece and Italy, among others. These paved the way for the purchase of state assets by German monopolies. At the same time, this crisis showed how the German export model can be shaken by inter-imperialist contradictions.
From 1990, the Bundeswehr was to fulfill Germany’s “international responsibility” in military terms, as the then Chancellor Helmut Kohl (1930-2017) declared just one day after “reunification”. To this end, it was transformed from a large army for “national defence” into a specialized army that was primarily intended to perform certain tasks as part of occupation and control missions abroad. Its personnel was limited to 370,000 people and the number of locations was reduced. In the years that followed, the number of soldiers was reduced further and further and conscription was suspended in 2011.9 With the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, a further transformation began, which led to a renewed increase in military spending and arms production in Germany. With Russia’s attack on the entire Ukraine since 2022, this development has massively accelerated. Today, the focus is once again on “national and alliance defense”, for which purpose soldiers are being deployed to NATO’s eastern border. However, Germany was and is no longer in a position to wage a world war on its own and will remain so for the foreseeable future, relying instead on its allies. The priority of German imperialism today is above all to put itself in as favorable a position as possible for further wars.
The current situation of German imperialism
Today, capitalism is the predominant mode of production all over the world. We live in an imperialist world system comprising imperialist states of varying degrees of influence and dependent, neo-colonial and colonially oppressed states. Imperialism, as the highest stage of capitalism, takes the contradiction between social production and private appropriation by the world monopolies and finance capital to the extreme. Furthermore, the current model of global production has been in crisis since 2008/2009.10
At a global level, the competition between the USA and China as the most powerful imperialist forces is a central pivotal point. The USA is trying to defend its hegemony, while China, as a rising state, is challenging it in ever more areas.
On a global level, Germany is also dependent on how this and other conflicts develop. In principle, the German alliance with the USA has always been the determining factor since 1945. This has never been seriously questioned by any political party, and closer relations with Russia, for example, have complemented rather than replaced it. The USA itself, during Donald Trump’s time in office as well as under Joe Biden, repeatedly threatened to dissolve the “transatlantic” alliances piece by piece and implemented individual measures in this regard. The USA has made it clear that it will focus on the dispute with China and that the Europeans should look to themselves. In doing so, it has been implementing efforts that were already formulated in 2011, for example, by the then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton under the slogan “America’s Pacific Century”.11
Relations with China have also changed over the decades. From the 2000s onwards, China was primarily a site for cheap production and a market for cars, chemical products and machinery from Germany. At the same time, however, decades of capital exports led to the rapid development of Chinese industry. Trade relations became less and less one-sided in terms of the export-import ratio. In 2023, China was Germany’s number one trading partner in terms of imports and number four in terms of exports, with imports strongly exceeding exports for years.12 Germany imports many primary products, particularly in the field of electrical engineering, and rare earths are also predominantly sourced from China. In the “Ampel”13 government’s 2023 China strategy, the country is described as a “partner, competitor and systemic rival”14. China is to remain a partner in economic and trade relations, and a decoupling of the economy is rejected. A short-term decoupling would simply be impossible. Companies that have invested heavily in their business in China include BASF, Volkswagen and Continental. BASF, for example, announced that it would invest ten billion euros in its Chinese site in 202315. Underlying this “systemic rivalry” is the geostrategic competition, the intensification of which is described as an increase in elements of “rivalry and competition” in the German-Chinese relationship. China’s relationship with Russia and the USA is also a challenge for Germany, which wishes to continue to enter into alliances with all of them and trade as widely as possible.
The economic situation
The current economic situation of German companies has been characterized by a decline in industrial production since 2017, the subsequent years of the coronavirus pandemic and the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Industrial production is still well below its last peak at the end of 2017 and there is no sign of a long-term recovery in German industry.
The Ukraine war has particularly affected the energy-intensive sectors of industry, as the loss of cheap Russian gas has led to a sharp rise in both gas and electricity prices. According to the Federal Statistical Office, energy-intensive sectors include the chemical, metal, paper and glass industries as well as coking plants and mineral oil processing. This does not include mechanical engineering, for example16. The industrial sector accounted for 28.1 percent in Germany in 2023 (France: 18.7 percent; UK: 16.9 percent)17. In contrast to production, gross value added in industry as a whole has risen by 0.6% since 2019.18 Price-adjusted gross value added is the value achieved by production after deducting all purchased inputs. Industrial production, on the other hand, covers all goods.
Germany lags behind other countries in the technology sector. The USA leads the way, for example with Nvidia, which, as of writing, holds 90% of the market for graphics processors and 80% for AI chips19. In business software, SAP is the only German company that can compete with US companies. At the same time, there are specific areas in which German companies are market leaders. For example, the start-up Celonis in the field of process mining, which involves software for the visualization, analysis and optimization of business processes.20 In addition, the most advanced technology in semiconductor manufacturing was developed jointly by Trumpf SE + Co KG and Carl Zeiss AG together with the Fraunhofer Institute, which has been producing machines for TSMC, Samsung and Intel since 202421. In the AI sector, Germany is also unable to compete with the American Open AI or the Chinese Deepseek. But there is specialized AI for research and for companies.22
German armaments companies also remain leaders in particularly specialized areas. These include Rheinmetall in tank construction, Thyssenkrupp in submarines and Diehl in missile and sensor systems. In addition to the final manufacturers, there are numerous suppliers, estimated by the Information Centre for Militarization at around 1,350 companies.23
The value of planned foreign direct investment in Germany in 2023 amounted to 34.8 billion euros24. Many companies are investing in the semiconductor, battery production and battery recycling sectors and want to set up production facilities or conduct research and development. However, one of the largest projects in this area is currently on hold: Intel’s two chip factories in Magdeburg. 30 billion euros were to be invested and the German government intended to subsidize the project with ten billion euros. The company then stopped the project, with a final decision not due to be made until 202625. Other large corporations that have announced investments include Apple (one billion euros for its European chip design center in Munich) and TSMC from Taiwan (10 billion euros for a chip factory in Dresden).
The specter of “deindustrialization”
The term “deindustrialization” is often used in connection with the weakening economic situation in Germany and is seen as a particular risk. In the context of the current situation, however, it is merely a battle cry used by capitalists to promote their interests. Compared to other imperialist countries, industry accounts for a significantly larger share of GDP in Germany. For example, the share of industry in Germany’s GDP is 5.5 percentage points above the EU average and almost 10 percentage points above that of its biggest EU competitor, France. Over the decades, all imperialists have relocated a large part of their industry to countries where they can produce more cheaply. The monopolies in Germany, France, etc. still rake in the lion’s share of the profits, even if their factories are located in Indonesia or Mexico. Today, the concrete expression of the crisis in German industry is not its disappearance, but above all job cuts, e.g. at VW or BASF. What is imminent, and actually poses real problems for capitalists, is a transformation of their core industries. This is currently being driven primarily by technological developments, such as electric mobility and artificial intelligence, and the more advanced competition in these areas.
Another transformation is the so-called “energy transition”, i.e. the shift in power generation from fossil fuels to wind, hydro and solar power. This changeover has little to do with climate protection, but is primarily of benefit to Germany, which has scarce resources. In 2023, coal, natural gas and nuclear energy accounted for 48% of power generation and renewables for 52%. In the first half of 2024, renewable energies accounted for 61.5%26. According to the German government, around 80% of electricity is to be produced from renewable sources by 2030. Coal is particularly important for securing electricity output and a stable frequency in the electricity grid. Natural gas was supposed to enable the phase-out of coal-fired power generation, but has become more expensive and scarcer due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines. Russian supplies still accounted for around 55% of gas imports in 2020. As a consequence of the war in Ukraine, much more liquefied natural gas (LNG) was imported from Norway, the USA, Canada and Azerbaijan, among others, and the infrastructure for this was expanded.
The debt question
An industrial and energy transformation will cost companies and the state a great deal of money. One way to raise the funds for this is to take on debt.
The global mountain of debt continues to grow. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the global debt ratio – i.e. the ratio of global debt to annual economic output (GDP) – to rise to almost 100% by 2030. This means that the world’s total debt will roughly correspond to the total annual economic output. The debt level is being driven primarily by China and the USA27. Germany has so far bucked the trend. In 2024, government debt here amounted to 63% of GDP (Japan: 251%; France: 112%; UK: 102%)28. Up to now, German policy has been limited to using exemptions from the “debt brake” enshrined in the constitution, in times of crisis. The main advantage of low national debt for Germany is that it keeps its currency stable, which is an important factor for an export power. However, a significantly higher level of debt would be economically feasible for Germany due to its economic strength. Even if the debt brake is not relaxed or abolished completely, gigantic mountains of debt can also be taken on as part of so-called special funds, for example for further armaments or investments in infrastructure
Demography and workforce
Not only do the large corporations need money in order to make a profit, but they also require workers. At 83.6 million, Germany has the largest population in Europe (excluding Russia and Turkey). At the same time, more people have been dying in Germany for decades than are being born here, although migration to Germany has so far counteracted the decline in the population. The number of people of working age (20 to 66) was 51.4 million in 2021 and is forecast to fall by 1.6 to 4.8 million by the mid-2030s. The population in eastern Germany is already significantly older on average than in western Germany.29 According to forecasts, the number of 20- to 66-year-olds in the east will therefore decline continuously, while elsewhere it will tend to stagnate.
This trend is already having an impact on the state pension system today and will have an even greater impact in the future, as fewer and fewer people are working, but more people will be drawing pensions. Even today, there are only around two working people for every person receiving an old-age pension. In 1962, the ratio in West Germany was still one to six. This is because the number of pension recipients is growing much faster than the number of workers paying pension contributions.30 The absolute number of people of working age is also expected to fall in the future.31 In addition, German imperialism is particularly lacking in specialized workers in various fields. There are currently many vacancies, especially in social, health and technical professions.32 So far, German imperialism sees the answer to this problem in bringing both women and people of retirement age into full-time work more and for longer. Added to this is the need for the migration of workers, with the state in particular attempting to influence and control migration in the interests of capital.
Military situation
In his study of Japanese imperialism, Eugen Varga states: «The military power of a country is determined by two main factors:
(a) the economic strength of a country,
b) the strength of its social system.»33
In Germany, both factors form a favorable basis for the development of military power, the potential of which, however, has not yet been fully exploited by the imperialists.
In 2024, the Bundeswehr comprised 181,570 military personnel and 81,731 in the civilian sector. The soldiers consist of temporary soldiers, professional soldiers, voluntary military service personnel and voluntary military service personnel in homeland security. The former make up the largest group at around 113,000. Just over 13 percent of soldiers are women.34 The Bundeswehr keeps the current figures on its equipment with weapons systems secret in order to make it more difficult to assess its strength. However, according to a report by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the procurement of new weapons has accelerated since the end of 2023. However, with the current average number of orders per year, it would take several decades for many types of weapons to even reach the 2004 level. This is also due to a significant decline in the arms industry in Europe from the 1990s until 2015. For example, the Bundeswehr’s inventory of main battle tanks was 339 in 2021 and 2,398 in 2004, with an average of 49.2 tanks ordered annually between February 2022 and July 2024. This means that if no tanks were sold, decommissioned or lost in 2038, the 2004 figure could once again be reached.35 Germany does not possess any nuclear weapons and has signed and ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which prohibits their production and procurement. At the same time, it is part of NATO’s nuclear strategy. This means that there are American nuclear weapons in Germany, which could also be transported and used by German fighter aircraft in the event of war. At the same time, Germany cannot dispose of these independently.
The restructuring of the Bundeswehr began in April 2024 for the purpose of preparing for war. The “Osnabrück Decree” laid down the principles for this. The Federal Ministry of Defense (BMVg) writes: «With the structural changes adopted at the beginning of April, the BMVg’s portfolio is once again focusing on contemporary national and alliance defence. This represents a departure from the contingent thinking of recent years, which has characterized the Dresden Decree in force since March 2012. In order to align the Bundeswehr with a war-capable Bundeswehr of the new era, it is necessary to fundamentally redetermine the responsibilities, decision-making powers and cooperation of all levels.»36 As part of the restructuring, the “Cyber and Information Space” division will be added to the army, navy and air force as a fourth branch of the armed forces. In addition, all Bundeswehr operations at home and abroad will be placed under the new Operational Command and the separation of the Operational Command and the Territorial Command will be dissolved.37
In addition, a strategy paper has been drawn up in recent years, the “Operations Plan Germany”38, which contains detailed plans for the event of war. The secret document was drawn up by the Bundeswehr together with federal, state and local authorities, the police, fire department, technical relief organization and companies, with the Territorial Command of the Bundeswehr taking responsibility. It contains plans for the event of war in Germany as well as for the deployment and transit of NATO forces to NATO’s eastern border. In the event of an attack by Russia on NATO, the majority of active soldiers would be deployed to Lithuania, while the territorial reserve, the “homeland defense”, would remain in Germany. Volunteers (e.g. from the Red Cross, the Malteser organization, etc.) would also be involved.
In addition to volunteer structures, Germany also has a broad industrial base to fall back on in the event of war. Although a disruption to international production chains would have devastating consequences, the mechanical engineering, electrical, metal, chemical and pharmaceutical industries still have central locations in Germany where production can take place.
Political Situation
In addition to its fundamental economic power, the stability of its political and social system has historically been a great strength of German imperialism. One expression of this is that since 1945 there has not been a government without the participation of either the SPD or the CDU/CSU, and changes in government themselves have hardly brought about any fundamental changes. For example, with Agenda 2010, a red-green39 government implemented extensive cuts to the social system, which were also supported by the CDU and FDP.
Political instability and, for example, minority governments are not uncommon in other countries, but are the exception in Germany. The rise of the fascists, the shrinking of the “people’s parties” CDU and SPD, and the break-up of the “Ampel” coalition in 2024 are signs that political stability is under greater threat and that changes are also taking place here.
While bourgeois democracy in Germany offers numerous opportunities for integration, it also makes the state particularly bureaucratic and slow. In view of the increased speed with which developments are taking place on a global level, the question of major restructuring towards more authoritarian rule, which can also “rule by force” and place a greater focus on repression in order to safeguard the state and the economy even in more turbulent times, also arises here.
Perspectives for further development
The developments described above and the current situation give rise to various problems facing German imperialism today. How things will continue for it in the coming years depends not only or above all on federal elections or the will of individual capitalist associations, but is also closely linked to the further development of the world situation, the struggle between the USA and China and, not least, the development of resistance by the working class in this country. All imperialist states want to defend or strengthen their position in the world order. Despite the challenges facing Germany’s monopoly capitalists, they will not simply throw in the towel, but will instead in all likelihood try even harder and more aggressively to assert their own interests and implement the necessary measures to do so.
They have already begun in the military field. With the “ Zeitenwende”40, the course was set for rearmament and militarization. The implementation of full conscription (regardless of gender) will certainly take a few more years before it is logistically feasible, but this problem could probably be solved in 5-10 years at the latest. The Bundeswehr brigade in Lithuania is expected to be fully operational by 2027. According to War Minister Boris Pistorius, this means that Germany already has “a leading responsibility in the alliance here on NATO’s eastern flank”.41 As the USA wants to withdraw further and further from Europe, this will open up further gaps that German imperialism could fill. At the same time, this would increase competition with England, France and Poland.
The relationship with France and the UK also plays an important role in the issue of nuclear weapons, as both countries, unlike Germany, are nuclear powers. France has aircraft with shorter-range nuclear missiles and four nuclear submarines with long-range strategic missiles, while the UK also has four nuclear submarines. The establishment of a European nuclear umbrella with French nuclear weapons has already been debated in the past, whereby Germany has always made it a condition to have control over potentially stationed weapons, which France has so far rejected. However, in the wake of the announced strategic US withdrawal, which could also lead to the withdrawal of American nuclear weapons from Europe, the discussion has restarted.42 An agreement would be favorable for Germany, as possessing its own nuclear weapons would mean the termination of numerous treaties, would reverse the phase-out of nuclear energy and would be extremely expensive and therefore out of the question for the foreseeable future.
It is already clear that German military spending will continue to rise one way or another, even if it is still unclear by how much. In 2024, 11 percent of the federal budget was spent on defense (51 billion euros, excluding the 100 billion euro special fund). In future, there are plans to exempt defense spending from the debt brake. If the NATO target of two percent of gross domestic product (GDP) is implemented in future, the proportion would rise to 18 percent of the federal budget (86 billion euros). 3.5 percent of GDP, as currently demanded by some politicians, would account for 31.5 percent of the federal budget (150 billion euros).43
The importance of German defense companies will also continue to increase. Germany and the EU want to rely on “domestic” weapons44 and the German arms industry appears to be a potential driver of economic growth. In addition, unprofitable civilian industrial sites can be made usable for them, as has already happened in Görlitz with the sale of an Alstom plant to KNDS.45 Volkswagen is already involved in the armaments business with its subsidiary Renk, which is the world market leader in transmissions for tanks and warships. There were already rumors at the end of 2024 that the Osnabrück VW plant affected by the VW crisis was to be sold to a defense company, but no further reports since then.46
However, there is still a long way to go before the defense industry, for example, can make up for the losses in the automotive industry. German imperialism must manage to reorganize its economy in the long term and must not fall too far behind in terms of technological development. Changing its industry also means that it must secure its energy supply in the long term, which not only concerns the issue of production, but also the associated infrastructure, grid expansion, etc. The same applies to dealing with demographic change: thousands of workers will retire in the coming years, which cannot simply always and everywhere be compensated for by migration. One answer to this is seen in increasing the participation of women and older people in the workforce.
The development of the economy remains a key issue for all sectors. In order to provide support to the large monopolies and bring them out of the crisis, the next government is already planning to launch a special fund of 500 billion euros for infrastructure projects. There are also signs of a possible expansion of markets for German companies in Latin America and Eastern Europe, which would also benefit from the withdrawal of the USA from these regions. Although this would still not put Germany in the same economic league as the USA and China, it would strengthen its position vis-à-vis France and Russia.
Whether the German economy rises or falls: Under capitalism, the workers will pay the price. We can assume that a series of attacks on the working class will be carried out in the coming months and years: Militarization and preparations for war have long since begun here, even if the direct effects on the lives of many people have yet to be felt. What is already being felt today is the shifting of high industrial prices and the layoffs that will continue to accompany us in the future. The potential hundreds of billions in loans to support the monopolies and fund rearmament could also lead to greater cuts in welfare systems and benefits, where so far only cautious and partial steps have been taken in this direction. In order to counter demographic change and the shortage of skilled workers, there are already calls to increase the maximum daily working hours, to keep raising the retirement age and to encourage pensioners to return to work. Under the guise of “reducing bureaucracy”, regulations relating to environmental protection and work safety, for example, could also be abolished.
In principle, German imperialism has all the prerequisites to take advantage of its current weaker phase to make a leap forward. However, due to the ever faster escalating contradictions, it does not have forever, which makes more radical changes and variants more likely than a continuation of the current status quo.
The struggle for implementation
Even if the capitalists are the ruling class, they cannot simply impose their wishes. On a political level, German imperialism needs forces that are able to enforce these measures against the vast majority of the population – the working class – or, in the best case, even use them against their own interests. They use the more open competition on an economic and political level to drive society to the right. The sharper the contradictions become on an international level, the sharper the necessary attacks on the working class will be from the perspective of the capitalists and their politicians. The far-right AfD will be further normalized in the coming years and a governing coalition will at least be prepared. One key reason that has stood in the way of this so far has been the AfD’s supposedly excessive distancing from the US. However, due to the aggressive course of the current US government, even die-hard “transatlanticists” such as Friedrich Merz (CDU) are talking about the need for greater independence from the USA. Every government will implement corresponding measures in the future. Not only will short-term changes be made, but other standards will also be set in the long term.
In addition to its presence in parliament in the form of the AfD, the fascist movement is also driving this development on the streets and in the media. Parties and organizations such as “Der Dritte Weg” or the “Neue Stärke Partei”47 are already threatening leftists, migrants and LGBTI+ demonstrations on the streets. Fascist think tanks and theory magazines such as “Sezession», whose editor-in-chief Götz Kubitschek has close ties to Björn Höcke48 and others, who describe themselves as “right-wing intellectuals”, lay the ideological foundations for this, and right-wing tabloid media such as NIUS, which is run by former Bild editor-in-chief Julian Reichelt, then disseminate fascist propaganda on a massive scale. Despite the various contradictions that also exist within the fascist movement, overall they ensure that the most aggressive course of German imperialism is advanced.
The numerous business associations (Confederation of German Employers‘ Associations, the Association German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, Gesamtmetall, etc.) and their think tanks (New Social Free Market Initiative, etc.) also act as open representatives of capital’s interests. In addition to their own public appearances, they also disseminate the capitalists‘ demands via the media monopolies, e.g. the Bertelsmann Stiftung (including RTL Group) or Axel Springer publishing group (including Welt, Business Insider, Politico). The Bertelsmann Stiftung’s publishing house also publishes numerous books for schools and educational institutions, where, for example, together with texts from the Federal Agency for Civic Education (which in turn belongs to the Ministry of the Interior), they shape lessons in the interests of the capitalists.
The shift to the right, which is being driven forward in various ways, is simultaneously generating a counter-movement that can strengthen progressive as well as revolutionary forces. Any attack can only be carried out at the risk of the piecemeal dissolution of social stability. This also increases the potential for protest and resistance. One example of this was the mass demonstrations against the right and against the CDU’s joint vote with the AfD shortly before the 2025 federal elections. The Left Party in particular was able to achieve unprecedented successes as a result. However, the DGB trade unions, which today basically have a system-preserving function, are also being pushed by their base to take action against job cuts, real wage losses, etc.49
Our Answer
Historically, German imperialism has managed to get out of many very difficult situations. So it will not fall on its own – this requires a strong working class and socialist revolution. But how do we approach these goals under the current conditions?
Just as the ministries, think tanks, institutes, etc. are working on developing the strategy of German capital and adapting it to the world situation, we as communists must also find our answers to these developments. Fundamentally, the working class is still the only social force today that can positively intervene in the development of imperialism by smashing it. In Germany, it is our task to ensure that German imperialism is not given free rein in its development.
When it comes to short-term challenges, we must start fighting against every attack now so that we do not find ourselves in an even worse situation at a later date. Before, for example, the retirement age is pushed up further or the weekly working hours are increased, we must also fight against “voluntary” incentives to work more (and thus greater exploitation). If compulsory military service is to be reinstated, hundreds of billions are to be spent on rearmament and the German arms industry is to become the world market leader, the antimilitarist struggle will become particularly important, even before Bundeswehr soldiers are involved in combat on the eastern front. The working class must become internationally active against the preparations for the next great imperialist war for redistribution. The protests against the war and genocide in Gaza are already exemplary of this. Crises and wars in other parts of the world will also continue to resonate in Germany and must be taken up by communists in order to activate and organize all sections of the working class living here.
This also includes highlighting the particular effects of crises and attacks on working class women and fighting against the strengthening of supposedly “past” expressions of patriarchy, such as a possible tightening of abortion law, as is already a reality in the USA. A stronger return to the propagation of the role of the housewife and mother is not out of the question, especially with regards to military conflicts, even if it is in contradiction to the planned further inclusion of women in the labor market, the increase in their working hours and a “compulsory military service for all”. German imperialism needs both, and bourgeois feminism, for example, can also pave the way for this. In the spirit of: Women can decide for themselves how they serve Germany – whether at arms or on the home front. Making the revolutionary alternative to this false choice clear is also a central task.
The crisis-like expression of escalating contradictions increases the potential for upheaval in the lives of our class as a whole. Today, fascist forces in particular are taking advantage of this by directing people’s worries and fears about the future towards enemy images such as migrants or LGBTI+ people. In addition to direct anti-fascist work and confrontation in order to counter right-wing developments, communists must above all manage to generate political activity from these fractures themselves and develop class consciousness among the people.
In the long term, a class militant workers‘ movement oriented towards class struggle and a Communist Party must be rebuilt from its most progressive forces. Any other strategy is doomed to failure under the current conditions. As old as these fundamental insights may be, it is all the more important to work towards their concrete creation, adapting them to the situation presented, in Germany and throughout the world. Then the kind of world we will live in over the next few years will also be in our hands.
1 World Economic Outlook Database 2024, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2024/October
2Varga, Eugen (1946): Die historischen Wurzeln der Besonderheiten des deutschen Imperialismus, Berlin – Leipzig 1946, Verlag der Sowjetischen Militärverwaltung in Deutschland, p.11, Translation from German.
3 The amount of banknotes in circulation significantly exceeded the amount of commodities.
4 Ibid, p. 16
5 https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/gas-fracking-oel-kohle-uran-bodenschaetze-deutschland-energie-100.html
6 In addition to the required amount of electricity produced, the storage of surpluses is a major problem.
7 https://www.bpb.de/shop/zeitschriften/izpb/deutschland-in-den-50er-jahren-256/10131/wirtschaft-in-beiden-deutschen-staaten-teil-1/
8 https://www.ost-ausschuss.de/sites/default/files/2025-Handelszahlen/Deutscher%20Osthandel%202024.pdf
9 https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ueber-die-bundeswehr/geschichte-bundeswehr/reformen-bundeswehr
10 cf. Smith, John (2016): Imperialism in the twenty-first century, Monthly Review Press, S. 279 ff.
11 http://www.ag-friedensforschung.de/regionen/USA/clinton.html
12 In terms of trade balance, China was in last place in the same year. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirtschaft/Aussenhandel/Tabellen/rangfolge-handelspartner.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
13 „Ampel“ means traffic light in German. The failed coalition-government under Chancelor Olaf Scholz was named for the colors of its ruling coalition parties, those being Red (SPD), Yellow (FDP) and Green (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen).
14 https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/aussenpolitik/asien/china-strategie/2607934
15 https://www.basf.com/global/de/who-we-are/organization/locations/asia-pacific/our-engagement-in-china#item-1695368598541-704122995
16 https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/1001612/9d30550023549da8958e5c71136bcb53/Anlage_zum_76_Protokoll.pdf
17 https://de.statista.com/infografik/28507/anteil-des-industriesektors-am-bruttoinlandsprodukt/
18 Handelsblatt issue 11. Oktober 2024 page 8
19 https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/wirtschaft-verantwortung/stimme-aus-shanghai-deutschland-soll-mit-china-gemeinsam-us-dominanz-brechen-li.2293971
20 https://www.celonis.com/analyst-reports/gartner-magic-quadrant-2024/
21 https://www.zdf.de/wissen/deutscher-zukunftspreis/deutscher-zukunftspreis-2020-100.html
22 https://www.wiwo.de/unternehmen/mittelstand/gipfeltreffen-der-weltmarktfuehrer-wir-muessen-uns-beim-thema-ki-keine-sorgen-machen/30201276.html
23 https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ruestungsindustrie-branche-waffen-101.html
24 https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/ist-der-standort-besser-als-sein-ruf-auslaendische-direktinvestitionen-in-deutschland-sind-stark-gestiegen-ld.1830380
25 https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/sachsen-anhalt/landespolitik/Intel-Magdeburg-chipindustrie-sachsen-anhalt-trump-102.html
26 Press release of the Federal Statistical Office No. 334 of September 4, 2024,
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2024/09/PD24_334_43312.html
27 https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/iwf-verschuldung-deutschland-100.html
28 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024
29 https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/sozialbericht-2024/553026/zukuenftige-bevoelkerungsentwicklung/
30 https://www.demografie-portal.de/DE/Fakten/altersrentner-beitragszahler.html
31 https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/index.html#!y=2043&a=20,67&v=4&g
32 https://www.verdi.de/themen/arbeit/++co++74debf86-472f-11ee-894c-001a4a160129
33 Varga, Eugen (1932): Der japanische Imperialismus im Mittelpunkt der Weltpolitik, aus: Ausgewählte Schriften 2, Pahl-Rugenstein 1982, p. 243
34 https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ueber-die-bundeswehr/zahlen-daten-fakten/personalzahlen-bundeswehr
35 https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/1bcebf8c-84e8-4f3d-a7d3-1793b3ba9850-Kiel_Report_Nr_1.pdf
36 https://www.bmvg.de/de/presse/osnabruecker-erlass-regelt-neue-grundsaetze-spitzengliederung-5778130
37 https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation
38 https://www.bundeswehr.de/resource/blob/5761202/5101246ca9de726f78c4d988607532fc/oplan-data.pdf
39 SPD and Bündnis90/Die Grünen
40 “Zeitenwende” can be translated as “Historical Turning Point“. The Phrase has become the de facto slogan of modern German militarism. First used by Chancelor Olaf Scholz in his Feb. 27, 2021 speech before the German Parliament three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is meant to symbolize the historical shift in German imperialist policy and is used as an excuse for most decision made in this respect.
41 https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/aktuelles/meldungen/bundeswehr-litauen-grosse-schritte-deutsche-kampfbrigade
42 https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/news/detail/9882
43 https://www.imi-online.de/2025/01/22/nicht-verwirren-lassen/
44 https://www.imi-online.de/2024/04/24/umschalten-auf-kriegswirtschaft/
45 https://www.niederlausitz-aktuell.de/niederlausitz-aktuell/orte/nachbarn/288084/knds-uebernimmt-alstom-werk-in-goerlitz-produktion-von-panzern-ab-2025.html
46 A Swiss media outlet had reported on this, but deleted the statement again – without justification or labeling. Here: https://www.hasepost.de/verkauf-von-volkswagen-osnabrueck-an-ruestungskonzern-schon-wieder-vom-tisch-548002/
47 Small neonazi parties in Germany. The “Dritte Weg” (Third Way) in particular stands in the tradition of the “left” wing of the NSDAP around Gregor Strasser, advocating for revolutionary nationalism.
48 Höcke is one of if not the most influential politician within the AfD and is the de facto leader of its neo-fascist elements.
49 The DGB (Deutscher Gewerkschaftsbund: German Federation of Trade Unions) is the largest union organization in Germany. It is a key actor in the “social partnership” between capital, the state and worker-elite union representatives. For an assessment of the DGB as a yellow trade union, see the article “Is there no alternative to the DGB?” on our website. (hier Platz für einen link, falls vorhanden)
